GLENN GUILBEAU, Tiger Rag Editor
They say it’s darkest just before dawn.
Well, it’s getting pretty dark around the LSU football program, and it’s getting so late, it’s early.
TERROR IN THE AISLES: BRYCE UNDERWOOD FLIPS ON LSU
Three double-digit losses in their last three games, and the Tigers are having to accept the loss of their supposed savior – No. 1-ranked high school quarterback Bryce Young of Detroit committing to Michigan on Thursday after flipping his commitment from LSU.
Shortly after a particularly humiliating loss to a bad Florida team last week, No. 7-ranked interior offensive lineman Devin Harper (6-4, 305) of Calvary Baptist in Shreveport flipped from LSU for Ole Miss.
The college football world has flipped off LSU from far and near. The Tigers were 6-1 and No. 8 in the nation just over a month ago after back-to-back, impressive victories over then-No. 9 Ole Miss and Arkansas in mid-October to get to 3-0 in the Southeastern Conference.
LSU (6-4, 3-3 SEC) plays Vanderbilt (6-4, 3-3 SEC) tonight (6:45 p.m., SEC Network) to save face, avoid third tier bowls, and so as to not lose any more commitments. The Tigers need a win much like the 2-7 Saints did and got over Atlanta on Nov. 10 to exorcise a seven-game losing streak – just to change the noir narrative already.
TIGERS HAVE PROVERBIAL PLAYERS-ONLY MEETING
“Everybody in here wants to win more than anybody else in the entire,” LSU left tackle Will Campbell said and paused this week before saying “country” with emphasis. “This isn’t what we came here for. We have a great opportunity this weekend against a quality opponent to get a stain off of us that’s been over us, that’s been on us for about five weeks.”
Actually, it has only been four weeks, but I can understand it feeling like five or more to Campbell, who grew up on LSU in Monroe.
And don’t be surprised if the stain deepens to four in a row tonight. LSU, strangely, is an eight-point favorite. If the Tigers play like they did against Ole Miss and Arkansas and in the first half against Texas A&M, they will beat the Commodores, who did lose their last game, 28-7, to South Carolina on Nov. 9. And LSU did beat South Carolina.
But if LSU plays as poorly against dual-threat Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia as it did against dual-threat quarterbacks Marcel Reed of A&M and Jalen Milroe of Alabama in recent weeks, it will lose again.
And it it will grow darker for LSU coach Brian Kelly again, but he’s not getting fired, no matter what social media says or overly emotional fans and Board of Supervisors may think.
Pavia (5-foot-10, 207) is basically another Johnny Manziel (6-0, 210) without the extracurriculars, hopefully. Now, LSU defended the 2012 Heisman winner Manziel at A&M as well or better than anyone in 2012 and ’13 in 24-19 and 34-10 wins. That was under LSU’s last great defensive coordinator, John Chavis, who directed the last LSU defense to finish No. 1 in a major SEC defensive category – total defense (316.8 yards allowed a game) and pass defense (164. 2 a game) in 2014. And he did it with bad offenses for the most part, which is difficult.
Yes, things didn’t end well for Chavis at stops post-LSU. And Dave Aranda was very good for LSU as DC (2016-19), but LSU had excellent offenses for the most part during his time, and he never finished No. 1 in a category.
Current LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker is No. 13 in the SEC in total defense and No. 66 nationally (364.5) and No. 14 against the run and 66th nationally (147).
Pavia leads Vanderbilt in rushing with 628 net yards on 159 attempts and is 143-of-236 passing for 1,843 yards and 15 touchdowns with just three interceptions for a 144.6 efficiency rating that is No. 7 in the SEC and 38th nationally. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is 11th in the SEC and No. 63 in the nation in efficiency at 136.3 on 262-of-422 passing for 3,126 yards and 22 touchdowns with 11 interceptions.
Diego completed 16 of 20 for 252 yards and TDs of 36 and 6 yards while rushing 20 times for 56 yards in a 40-35 win over Alabama on Oct. 5.
“You’ve got to defend the running game,” Kelly said. “It’s really triple-option in a lot of ways. This is truly assignment-oriented football, and you have to be disciplined. That offense wants to catch you undisciplined. They want to catch you doing something that’s not your job.”
Kelly just described how LSU has played defense for the most part the last two seasons. Baker first needs to make sure he gets the call in right so everyone knows what to do, and it doesn’t look like the Tigers have fewer than 11 on the field.
Yes, LSU is bracing … for Vanderbilt! Yes, the Commodores are much improved as SEC coach of the year candidate Clark Lea struts in to meet his former boss at Notre Dame who is up for SEC worst coach of the year.
LSU has played Vanderbilt 33 times, beginning in 1902. It is the first time LSU and and its fan base are seriously worried about losing to Vanderbilt since probably 1948 when the 2-4 Tigers – also on a three-game losing streak – went to Nashville to play the 3-2-1 Commodores, lost 48-7 and finished 3-7.
Those were dark days. Get ready, just in case.
SEC SCHEDULE (CFP rankings)
No. 9 Ole Miss at Florida, 11 a.m., ABC
Massachusetts at No. 10 Georgia, 11:45 a.m., SEC Network
Texas-El Paso at No. 11 Tennessee, Noon, ESPN+, SEC Network+
Kentucky at No. 3 Texas, 2:30 p.m., ABC
Louisiana Tech at Arkansas, 3 p.m., ESPN+, SEC Network+
Wofford at No. 18 South Carolina, 3 p.m., ESPN+, SEC Network+
No. 23 Missouri at Mississippi State, 3:15 p.m., SEC Network
No. 7 Alabama at Oklahoma, 6:30 p.m., ABC
No. 15 Texas A&M at Auburn, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Vanderbilt at LSU, 6:45 p.m., SEC Network
THE GUILBEAU POLL
1.Texas (9-1, 5-1 SEC)
2. Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)
3. Alabama (8-2, 4-2)
4. Georgia (8-2, 6-2)
5. Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1)
6. Tennessee (8-2, 5-2)
7. South Carolina (7-3, 5-3)
8. Missouri (7-3, 3-3)
9. Florida (5-5, 3-4)
10. LSU (6-4, 3-3)
11. Vanderbilt (6-4, 3-3)
12. Arkansas (5-5, 3-4)
13. Oklahoma (5-5, 1-5)
14. Auburn (4-6, 1-5)
15. Kentucky (4-6, 1-6)
16. Mississippi State (2-8, 0-6)
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Bryce Underwood’s flip sinks Brian Kelly’s third season on to further levels of catastrophe.”
… News crawl on CBS Sports Network coverage of the LSU-Pittsburgh basketball game Friday afternoon.
BS RETROACTIVE QUOTE OF THE WEEK
Bryce Underwood committing to LSU on Jan. 6, 2024.
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