GLENN GUILBEAU, Tiger Rag Editor
Billed as an elimination game for two weeks now, tonight’s clash between No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU in prime time (sorry, Lane) to keep one in contention for the College Football Playoff is more than that.
The loser’s season is ruined.
The critical kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. on ABC at Tiger Stadium. Despite childish complaints from Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, No. 3 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) plays at No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) in the daytime at 2:30 p.m. in the ABC undercard. Alabama has beat Georgia, and LSU has beat Ole Miss.
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The Crimson Tide (6-2, 3-2 Southeastern Conference) has missed the playoffs twice in the previous five years – in 2022 and in 2019. So it wouldn’t be that odd from that perspective to miss them again, and the Tide finished 11-2 in both of those seasons at No. 5 and No. 8 in the country, respectively, under then-coach Nick Saban. Still excellent seasons.
LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC) has not been to the playoffs since 2019, but it is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons and No. 15 and No. 12 rankings in the first two years of coach Brian Kelly, who inherited a disfigured, 11-12 program. So, those were two very good seasons as well, for starters.
But the playoffs have a 12-team format this season as opposed to four. And Alabama and LSU entered this season ranked No. 5 and No. 13 and rose to No. 1 and No. 8, respectively, before killer losses.
Alabama, which beat No. 2 Georgia 41-34 on Sept. 28, tumbled from No. 1 to No. 7 after a 40-35 upset at 23-point underdog Vanderbilt the next week, then fell again after losing at Tennessee, 24-17, on Oct. 19. LSU fell out of the top 10 after a 38-23 loss at No. 10 Texas A&M on Oct. 26 despite leading 17-7 at the half.
So, Alabama not making a 12-team playoff after making the four-team playoff eight times since its start in 2014, and losing a third regular season game for the first time since 2010 would clearly mean a ruined season in coach Kalen DeBoer’s first. Because he did inherit a program that just reached the CFP last year and finished 12-2 and won the SEC at 9-0, counting the win over Georgia in the league title game.
And LSU not making a 12-team playoff after reaching No. 8 in Kelly’s third season with a $10 million-a-year contract, as if he has already won a national championship but hasn’t, would also mean not just elimination, but ruination. This time a 10-win season after a bowl would be little consolation for LSU fans.
In fact, more pressure is on Kelly than DeBoer in this one, because it’s Kelly’s third year as opposed to his first, and that contract.
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer at his introductory press conference last January. (File photo).
“We’ve just got to keep winning, and that’s what it’s about,” DeBoer said Wednesday on the SEC teleconference. Then he made another rookie mistake, but not as big as that George Orwell one last month when he became the first Alabama coach to lose to Vanderbilt since Ray Perkins in 1984, breaking a 23-0 run.
“I didn’t realize even where we were ranked until just now,” he said.
Really?
“I knew it’d probably be up there somewhere,” he said. “But each week is what it’s about for us, and if we do what we need to do, then it will work itself out.”
At least, that last sentence makes sense. Alabama has Mercer (8-1, but in the FCS), Oklahoma (5-4, 1-4 SEC) on the road and Auburn (3-6, 1-5) after LSU. A 10-2 Alabama will make the playoffs whether it gets in the SEC Championship Game or not. A 9-3 and 5-3 Alabama with a loss to LSU would need to win a bowl to equal Saban’s worst season at Alabama – 10-3 and 5-3 in 2010. Ruined, but not embarrassing.
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LSU has clear path to the CFP with a win over Alabama as well, but more difficult. The Tigers will play at improving Florida (4-4, 2-3 SEC) before hosting dangerous Vanderbilt (6-3, 3-2) and Oklahoma (5-4, 1-4). A loss to Alabama would likely mean Kelly’s third straight 9-3 and 6-2 regular season finish, amid the ruins. He won’t be any trouble, but he would need to rise above mediocrity soon, especially with that contract. Have I mentioned his contract?
“This is really about preparing our team, and certainly knowing the competition is going to be one where we’re going to have to play really well for four quarters,” Kelly said. “The implications are 12 changes the way you look at everything.”
Correct. Not making the 12-team field will be like not making the NCAA Tournament in basketball. The loser of this game is headed to an NIT Bowl, and that’s a ruined season for a team that was in the top 10.
“We need to stay in the moment,” LSU senior defensive end Sai’vion Jones said. “Don’t get too wrapped up in the rankings. We just have to win.”
LSU’s players must also not let the accoutrements of this game get to them – ESPN’s College GameDay on campus and all that that bestows.
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“A lot of distractions,” said LSU junior tight end Mason Taylor, whose 2-point conversion catch in overtime gave LSU a walk-away win over Alabama, 32-31, in 2022. “We’ve got to approach it like we approached week one and week five and week six.”
Well, you lost in week one to USC, which is 4-5 on the season and 2-5 in the Big Ten. That loss would help keep LSU out of the playoffs even as a three-loss SEC team with just two in league play.
“Every single year, this game lives up to the hype,” Taylor said. “So you have to have fun with it. The hype of this game is always there. As long as we stick to our process, we’ll be just fine.”
Alabama is a 2.5-point favorite, based on its impressive outing in its last game – a 34-0 win over No. 21 Missouri – and LSU’s unimpressive loss at No. 10 Texas A&M. But Kelly is 17-2 at home as LSU’s coach, including 7-2 in the SEC and 3-1 against top 10 teams.
With the extra week to prepare, LSU can shore up its defense against a running quarterback like the dangerous Jalen Milroe of Alabama. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker and the Tigers got caught with their pants down at Texas A&M against backup QB Marcel Reed, but they did play very well against Arkansas running QB Taylen Green on Oct. 19 in a 34-10 win.
And LSU is just better than Alabama from the eye test. If Vanderbilt can put up 418 yards and convert an uncanny 12 of 18 third downs, so can LSU with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He’s clearly a better passer than Milroe and can dominate an Alabama defense that is 11th in the SEC in total defense (337.8 yards a game). LSU’s defense is worse at No. 58 nationally and No. 13 in the SEC in total yards allowed at game at 360.8. But it at least can pressure the quarterback.
It will be a high scoring game, which favors Nussmeier, particularly if he keeps his interceptions under three and runs a little bit.
Alabama is bad against the run – 65th nationally and 14th in the SEC with 144.5 yards a game. So, watch LSU tailback Caden Durham go for more than 100. LSU has actually fared better against the run than that at 48th nationally and 11th in the league with 130.8 yards allowed a game
And Alabama’s secondary will not be able to handle all five of Nussmeier’s targets – wide receivers Kyren Lacy, Aaron Anderson, Chris Hilton, who could show significant improvement in his second game back from an ankle injury, CJ Daniels, who is back from a knee injury, and Taylor.
“Sometimes, I get lost in the defense if they’re worrying about another dude, or looking at Kyren too much, I can slip out,” Taylor said. “I wait for those opportunities.”
Like that 2-point conversion two years ago.
“It’s been two years, so it’s time to make another memory or moment, so,” Taylor said.
That will happen.
PREDICTION: LSU 31, Alabama 21.
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