So, LSU Could Get Into SEC Championship Over Alabama After 42-13 Loss? SEC This Week

GLENN GUILBEAU, Tiger Rag Editor

LSU could have the ultimate victory over Alabama before even taking a snap in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game on Dec. 7, most likely against No. 3 Texas (8-1, 4-1 SEC).

There is a SEC tiebreaker scenario in which the No. 22 Tigers – 6-3 and 3-2 in the SEC entering the Florida game Saturday – would reach the league title game if they win out to finish 9-3 and 6-2 with Alabama finishing at 9-3 and 5-3. The Tide would have the same overall record at 9-3 and probably a higher College Football Playoff ranking and a better non-conference record at 4-0 to LSU’s 3-1. Non-conference records do not count in the SEC tiebreaker formula, fortunately, for the Tigers as they have a now-terrible loss to USC (4-5, 2-5 Big Ten).

Perhaps that’s why when LSU coach Brian Kelly discusses his team’s record he often says he has only two losses.

Imagine, LSU losing at home to Alabama, 42-13, in another Bama Breeze at Tiger Stadium, yet still reaching the SEC title game! The Crimson Tide has won seven of its last nine games at Tiger Stadium, including three blowouts and four shutouts in four of the last five – 42-13 this season, 55-17 in 2020, 29-0 in 2018 and 10-0 in 2016.

And Alabama is 30-10-2 all time down here at Tiger Stadium.

The late Jimmy Buffett’s “Bama Breeze” masterpiece could be rewritten with “Tiger Stadium” replacing “Bama Breeze” in the title and lyrics, and “Bama” replacing “You” in the lyrics:

“At Tiger Stadium, Bama can

Act the fool down there

Play it cool down there

At Tiger Stadium, Bama can

Drink some beer down there

Laugh and cheer down there

Pass another win down there

At Tiger Stadium, Bama can

Have too much fun down there

Stumble out with the sun down there

At Tiger Stadium, Bama can

Be one of our own down there

Never drink alone down there

Good God, Bama feels at home down there.

The key statistic for LSU reaching the SEC Championship Game is SEC tiebreaker No. 4 – conference opponents winning percentage. The Tigers are currently No. 1 in the SEC in that statistic at .520.

The SEC tiebreaker breakdown follows:

• 1. Head-to-head competition against the tied teams.
• 2. Record versus all common conference opponents.
• 3. Record against best common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams.
• 4. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams.
• 5. Capped relative total scoring margin versus all conference opponents among the tied teams.
• 6. Random draw of tied teams.

Here are some key results LSU needs to reach Atlanta:

-The Tigers must win out, starting today at Florida (4-5, 2-4 SEC) in a 2:30 p.m. on ABC. LSU then hosts Vanderbilt (6-4, 3-3 SEC) a week from tonight (6:30 or 6:45, SEC Network) and Oklahoma (3-6, 1-6 SEC) on Nov. 30.

-No. 7 Tennessee (8-1, 5-1 SEC) must lose to No. 12 Georgia (7-2, 5-2 SEC) tonight (6:30 p.m., ABC) or at Vanderbilt (6-4, 3-3 SEC) on Nov. 30.

-Alabama, which hosts Mercer today, must lose at Oklahoma on Nov. 23 or at home to Auburn (1-5, 3-6 SEC) on Nov. 30.

-Texas A&M, which hosts New Mexico State tonight, needs to lose either at Auburn on Nov. 23 or to Texas on Nov. 30.

-Arkansas needs to win at Missouri on Nov. 30.

Wild Scenario:

If every SEC Favorite wins the next 3 weeks + Arkansas beats Missouri

Then LSU is in the SEC Championship Game vs the winner of Texas and A&M. pic.twitter.com/s0qByUYlRN

— Peter Burns (@PeterBurnsESPN) November 13, 2024

“Priority is we need to clean up our own things that we need to get better at,” Kelly said Thursday. But you also want to be able to say, ‘Hey, look, it’s all still in front of you! You win out, you’ve got an opportunity to still be in the playoffs.’ But it starts with what we need to do to be better, so we can even think about those things.”

SEC SATURDAY SCHEDULE (College Football Playoff rankings)

No. 3 Texas at Arkansas, 11 a.m., ABC.

Louisiana-Monroe at Auburn, 11:45 a.m., SEC Network.

Murray State at Kentucky, 12:30 p.m., ESPN+, SEC Network+

Mercer at No. 10 Alabama, 1 p.m., ESPN+, SEC Network+.

No. 22 LSU at Florida, 2:30 p.m., ABC.

No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 South Carolina, 3:15 p.m., SEC Network.

No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia, 6:30 p.m., ABC.

New Mexico State at No. 15 Texas A&M, 6:45 p.m., SEC Network.

THE GUILBEAU POLL

1. Texas (8-1, 4-1 SEC)

2. Tennessee (8-1, 5-1)

3. Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)

4. Alabama (7-2, 4-2)

5. Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1)

6. Georgia (7-2, 5-2)

7. LSU (6-3, 3-2)

8. Missouri (7-2, 3-2)

9. South Carolina (6-3, 4-3)

10. Vanderbilt (6-4, 3-3)

11. Arkansas (5-4, 3-3)

12. Florida (4-5, 2-4)

13. Oklahoma (3-6, 1-6)

14. Auburn (3-6, 1-5)

15. Kentucky (3-6, 1-6)

16. Mississippi State (2-8, 0-6)

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“This league likes us on defense when it’s two tight ends and the quarterback’s running the ball. We’ve got to figure that out.”

-Brian Kelly on LSU’s run defense, which is No. 74 in the nation and 14th in the SEC with 150.8 yards allowed a game.

BS QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“No, absolutely none. He gives us the best chance to be successful.”

-Brian Kelly when asked if there has been “any consideration for a quarterback change” on the Southeastern Conference’s weekly teleconference Wednesday. But if starter Garrett Nussmeier, who threw three interceptions in the second half at Texas A&M in a loss, throws three interceptions in the first half today at Florida, look for him to be replaced by redshirt freshman backup Rickie Collins. At least for a series.