Well folks, it looks like Scott Woodward’s hiring of Brian Kelly was not the magic fix that LSU was hoping for.
Instead, that promising start this season after Kelly’s annual season-opening loss has turned into a downward spiral with three consecutive losses – to rivals – and a plummeting out of the polls – not to mention the playoffs.
And let’s not forget about that hefty $9.5 million salary that only amplifies the pressure and expectations on Kelly’s shoulders.
But it seems like the more money LSU puts into Kelly, the less results it is seeing on the field. In fact, Kelly’s sideline outbursts and heated confrontations with players captured by ABC on Saturday in Gainesville when the Gators simply wouldn’t back down suggest mounting frustration and possible internal discord within the Tigers.
LSU’s offense has lost its bearings and can’t seem to get it together while the defense is characteristically plagued by explosive plays. And let’s not even mention the embarrassing double-digit loss to a bad Florida team and its one-legged, second-string freshman quarterback.
But don’t worry, Kelly still has job security thanks to a massive buyout. But how long can that protect him if things continue to go downhill?
Brian Kelly Contract & Salary
Kelly’s 10-year contract, which runs through 2031, guarantees him $95 million, making it one of the most significant contracts in college football. Think Jimbo Fisher. His annual base salary started at $9 million in 2022 and increases incrementally each year, reaching $10 million in 2031. It breaks down as follows:
2024: $9.2 million
2025: $9.4 million
2026: $9.4 million
2027: $9.6 million
2028: $9.6 million
2029: $9.8 million
2030: $9.8 million
2031: $10 million
But Don’t Forget the Incentives
Kelly’s contract includes multiple performance-based incentives:
For instance, the Annual Longevity Bonus: $500,000 for each year he remains head coach
And, then there’s the Bowl Eligibility Bonus: $500,000 for achieving bowl eligibility
Then, of course, there are a slew of other incentives that are tangibly irrelevant during this current age of LSU football, but worth mentioning nonetheless:
SEC Championship Appearance: $75,000
SEC Championship Victory: $150,000
New Year’s Six Bowl Appearance: $100,000
College Football Playoff (CFP) Semifinal Appearance: $200,000
CFP National Championship Game Appearance: $300,000
CFP National Championship Victory: $500,000
SEC Coach of the Year: $50,000
National Coach of the Year: $75,000
Brian Kelly Buyout
Kelly’s contract specifies that LSU would owe him 90% of his remaining contract value if terminated without cause. This means his buyout — if fired without cause — would be as follows:
November 2024: $60.8 million
November 2025: $51.7 million
November 2026: $42.5 million
November 2027: $33.1 million
November 2028: $23.4 million
November 2029: $13.5 million
The high cost of this buyout reflects LSU’s significant investment in Kelly. This was intended to secure stability for the program. However, it also makes any decision to part ways financially complex.
Can LSU Fire Brian Kelly?
The combination of mounting on-field struggles and a substantial buyout puts LSU’s leadership in a financial difficult position, to say the least. This isn’t College Station, after all. Plus, now days with NIL being what it is, LSU needs to funnel as much outside (booster) funding to the roster as it can. Kelly is bringing in a top recruiting class in 2025 and even though he doesn’t like to spend big in the transfer portal, Kelly likely will this offseason because the roster challenge LSU currently faces will only get worse before it gets better unless it has some top-tier portal injection help soon. As in right away.
Speaking of going downhill, LSU is now going to be unranked and facing a Vanderbilt team that is a much better team than Florida, one which has already beaten Alabama this season. Vanderbilt is also 6-4 and 3-3 in the SEC, like LSU, and the Commodores had a bye this week.
You better believe Clark Lea, a former Kelly assistant coach, had his running quarterback, Diego Pravia, in the film room looking for holes in LSU’s defense last week while the Tigers were preparing to lose again.
The question is, can Kelly salvage this season and restore confidence in his leadership? Or will we see even more chaos and drama from the Tigers in the next two weeks?
In fact, after Saturday’s game against Florida, Kelly straight up asked his team if they wanted to fight or not (spoiler alert: it doesn’t look like they wanted to). Maybe instead of fighting, they should try focusing on addressing roster and coaching deficiencies before it’s too late.
But hey, at least we got some entertaining sideline drama and a candid glimpse into just how rough life can be in college football. Keep on fighting, Tigers (or not).
In LSU’s frustrating loss to the Gators, Garrett Nussmeier put up mediocre numbers despite being under constant pressure from the Florida defense.
Meanwhile, Kelly made some not-so-subtle remarks about certain LSU players lacking drive and motivation. When asked who he was referring to, Kelly cryptically replied, “If you’re not a thumb pointer, if you’re not willing to work hard and improve, then maybe this isn’t the right program for you.”
Now in his third year at LSU, Kelly is not living up to fans’ expectations with a 26-11 record and two bowl game victories. With just two games left in the season at Tiger Stadium, Kelly knows his team needs to turn things around quickly.
“It’s time for us to overcome adversity and fight for these last two wins,” he said.
Enter Vanderbilt followed by Oklahoma. Oklahoma’s defensive line and its whole front seven makes Florida look like a junior varsity roster. So, there’s that.
But let’s not forget Kelly literally promised success in year three of his tenure, citing his impressive track record at other programs. And yet, here LSU sits with a 6-4 record and losses to teams struggling to stay above .500, staring a potential losing season in the face.
Defensively, there have been multiple staff changes and yet the Tigers still struggle against quality opponents. On offense, Nussmeier has shown flashes but also tends to turn the ball over when it matters most.
Although Kelly’s job is safe for now due to the astronomical buyout clause and a strong 2025 recruiting class, it’s clear that changes need to be made this offseason if the Tigers want any shot at making the College Football Playoff in 2025. And that means dipping into the transfer portal for some much-needed difference makers.
As evidenced by his decision to bench starters Sage Ryan and Bradyn Swinson for the first quarter of the Florida game, Kelly is not afraid to make bold moves. But he better start delivering on his promises soon, or the heat he is now getting from the LSU fanbase may start coming from his bosses.
Here’s a sampling from one LSU fan, trust me there are thousands more with questions equally delving and critical if not more so:
THE LSU FOOTBALL QUIZ 2024
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Who passes for 400 yards and loses?
Who has 92 plays for one TD and loses?
Who had the best running QB ever and now has one who runs once a game even when there is a great open field?
Who sends in plays that seem predictable?
Who runs the blitz packages?
Who runs small backs up the middle to be stuffed every game?
Who never heard of a screen pass?
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Doug Schexnayder,PhD
Speaking of defense, LSU’s was lacking with Swinson managing only one hurry and four solo tackles, while Ryan only recorded one tackle and one pass breakup. And the reason for their slow start? According to ESPN, they sat out the first quarter due to “not meeting team standards.”
But that wasn’t the only issue for LSU’s defense. Da’Shawn Womack didn’t even make the trip to Florida, further depleting the already struggling unit. It was reported that he was added to the availability report just hours before kickoff. Sounds like some last-minute scrambling on the coaching staff’s part.
With Ryan and Swinson out, LSU had to rely on Major Burns at free safety to start, freshman Gabe Reliford got his first start at defensive end, and freshman Davhon Keys started at STAR. Keys dropped an interception leading to a quick Florida touchdown but ended up being named LSU defensive player of the game by the LSU Radio Network.
But let’s be real, this game was a disaster from start to finish for LSU’s defense. They couldn’t contain Florida’s explosive plays, allowing seven passes of at least 15 yards and four runs of at least 10 yards. And despite hurrying quarterback DJ Lagway eight times, they couldn’t manage a single sack on a gimpy, relatively inexperienced sitting duck. Meanwhile, Florida’s defense had a field day with seven sacks on Nussmeier.
Kelly summed it up perfectly:
“Giving up explosives on defense and negative plays on offense is a recipe for disaster in this league. And unfortunately, we’re in that phase right now.”
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Time for some major changes on both sides of the ball if LSU ever wants to compete in the SEC again.
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